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Late season El Niño remains possible

Despite most ocean and atmospheric indicators falling short of El Niño thresholds, model outlooks and recent observations indicate that a late El Niño remains possible. The Bureau’s ENSO Tracker indicates there is at least a 50% chance of El Niño developing over the coming months, which is double the long-term likelihood.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has now remained negative for several weeks, and some renewed warming has occurred across the equatorial Pacific Ocean over the past fortnight. Both support the possibility of an El Niño becoming established in the months ahead. Six of the eight international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate El Niño, or near El Niño, conditions are likely for the southern summer.

El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over large parts of southern and eastern inland areas of Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over southern Australia. Such impacts can often occur while an event is developing, as experienced in some locations over the past several months.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean continues to show signs that it has returned to a neutral state. Waters to the north of Australia and in the Timor Sea are now at near-average temperatures. All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the IOD will continue to weaken, with neutral conditions likely to become well established during the coming months.

Information courtesy of Bureau of Meteorology. (issued 23 Sept 2014).

El Niño remains possible in 2014

Despite some warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past month, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, models continue to suggest an El Niño remains possible in 2014, and hence the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status, indicating at least double the normal risk of an El Niño developing by the end of the year.

Although tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are within neutral range, an area of the sub-surface is warmer than average. A late season El Niño remains possible if these warmer waters rise to the surface and then affect atmospheric circulation, or if another sustained westerly wind burst develops in the western Pacific.

The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate central tropical Pacific surface temperatures will remain warmer than average, and may exceed El Niño thresholds by the end of the year. These model outlooks and current observations mean the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status, indicating at least a 50% chance (double the normal likelihood) of an El Niño forming in 2014.

El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over large parts of southern and eastern inland areas of Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over southern Australia. Such impacts can often occur while an event is developing, as experienced in some locations over the past several months.

The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean has shown signs of weakening. Waters to the north of Australia and in the Timor Sea have cooled over the past two weeks. All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the IOD will continue to weaken, with neutral conditions likely to return during the austral spring.

Information courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology (Issued 9th Sept 2014).

Come visit us at Stand 18 over the next couple of days and say hi to the crew.

Climate Outlooks issued 28 August 2014

Monthly and seasonal Climate Outlooks for September to November 2014 are now available on the Bureau’s website.

Upgraded Climate Outlooks service

Our new-look website offers you more climate information, including rainfall and temperature outlooks for separate months, short videos on the outlook and how to interpret climate risk, and detailed information on the climate influences. Plus it is easy to use on your desktop, tablet or mobile, with interactive maps that resize according to device and specific information for your location.

Information courtesy of the Bureau of Metereology. 

Global Highlights

• The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for July 2014 was the fourth highest on record for July, at 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20^th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F).
• The global land surface temperature was 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.3°C (57.8°F), marking the 10^th warmest July on record.
• For the ocean, the July global sea surface temperature was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20^thcentury average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), tying with 2009 as the warmest July on record.
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–July period (year-to-date) was 0.66°C (1.19°F) above the 20^th century average of 13.8°C (56.9°F), tying with 2002 as the third warmest such period on record.

The average temperature across the world’s land and ocean surfaces during July 2014 was 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20^th century average, the fourth highest for July on record. The record warmest July occurred in 1998, with a temperature that was 0.73°C (1.31°F) higher than average. Eight of the 10 warmest Julys have occurred within the past 10 years (2002 also ranks among the 10 warmest). Additionally, July 2014 marked the 38^th consecutive July and 353^rd consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20^th century average. The last below-average global temperature for July was July 1976 and the last below-average global temperature for any month was February 1985. With the exception of February (21^st warmest), each month during 2014 to date has ranked among the four warmest compared to its respective month.

The global land surface temperature was the 10^th highest for July in the 135-year period of record, but also the coolest since 2009, at 0.74°C (1.33°F) higher than the 20^th century average. Nine of the 10 warmest July land surface temperatures have occurred during the 21^st century. The highest July temperature occurred in 1998. As shown by the gridded Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above, record warmth was particularly prevalent across parts of northern Europe and a swath of northwestern Africa. Overall, 32 countries across every continent except Antarctica had at least one station reporting a record high temperature for July. The United States and the Russian Federation each had several stations that reported record warm temperatures as well as several stations with record cold temperatures for the month. No other countries had stations that reported a record cold July temperature. The period of record varies by station.

Select national information is highlighted below. (Please note that different countries report anomalies with respect to different base periods. The information provided here is based directly upon these data.):

• The July temperature for Norway was 4.3°C (7.7°F) above the 1961–1990 average, the record highest for July since national records began in 1900. This also marks Norway’s all-time highest monthly temperature for any month, breaking the previous record (set in July 1925 and July 1937) by a full degree Celsius. According to Meteorologisk institutt, much of central Norway was 6–7°C (11–13°F) warmer than average.
• In Denmark, July 2014 tied with 1994 as the second warmest July in the country’s 141-year period of record, behind only July 2006, at 3.9°C (7.0°F) higher than the 1961–1990 average. The average temperature surpassed 21.0°C (69.8°F) in some areas, so high that a new color had to be added to the monthly temperature map to accommodate the high temperature, according to DMI. Two heat waves, one lasting from July 17 to 30, contributed to the anomalously high temperatures. The country as a whole set a new record for number of summer days (defined as temperature surpassing 25°C / 77°F), at 15.5 days, compared with an average of 2.6 days.
• Sweden also observed temperatures well above average for July. Western Norrland had its highest July temperature on record, breaking the previous record set in 2003. Many regions near the Norwegian border broke their monthly temperature records by more than 1°C (1.8°F) and nearly all areas were at least 3°C (5.4°F) higher than the 1961–1990 average.
• The United Kingdom observed a July temperature that was 1.2°C (2.2°F) higher than the 1981–2010 average, tying with 1933 as the eighth warmest July in the 115-year period of record. Every month in 2014 to date has been warmer than average, according to the UK Met Office.
• The temperature for Germany in July was 1.3°C (2.3°F) higher than the 1981–2010 average. This marks the country’s eighth warmest July since national records began in 1881 and the second consecutive year the July temperature has ranked among the ten highest on record for the month. The greatest warmth was experienced in the northeast.
• The average temperature for July across Australia was above the 1961–1990 average for the month (+0.29°C / 0.52°F) and was also above average for every state and territory. The July maximum temperature was higher than average while the July minimum temperature was lower than average. Tasmania had its fifth highest maximum July temperature on record, while New South Wales had its seventh highest. No states had minimum temperatures among their 10 lowest. Records date back to 1910.
• In the U.S., several states in the West had a July temperature among their 10 warmest, while in the Midwest, Indiana and Arkansas each had their coolest July in the 120-year period of record. The Arkansas average temperature was 4.6°F (2.6°F) below the 20^th century average, beating the previous record cold July that occurred in 1967.

The average temperature for July across the world’s ocean surfaces was 0.59°C (1.06°F) higher than the 20^th century average, tying with 2009 as the warmest on record for the month. This is shy of the record warmest temperature departure set the previous month, but still tied with June 1998, October 2003, July 2009, and May 2014 as the second highest all-time monthly ocean temperature departure from average on record. Much warmer than average and record warm temperatures were prevalent in every major ocean basin, particularly notable across parts of the Arctic Seas between Greenland and northern Europe, the southern Indian Ocean, and the western equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions were present across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during July 2014. Temperature departures from average in this region, a major indicator of the conditions, cooled slightly compared with the previous month.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center estimates that there is about a 65 percent chance that El Niño conditions will develop during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter.

This information is courtesy of –

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for July 2014, published online August 2014, retrieved on August 22, 2014 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/7.