National rainfall outlook for June to August (issued 28th May)

Summary –

• A drier than normal winter is more likely for the southern mainland of Australia and parts of the tropical north.
• A wetter than normal winter is more likely for eastern Tasmania
• Climate influences include a warming tropical Pacific, and an easing of the warm eastern Indian Ocean
• Outlook accuracy is moderate to high over the northeast half of Australia, southern and central WA, and western Tasmania, with low accuracy elsewhere.

Details –
The chances of receiving above median rainfall for winter are less than 40% over parts of southern WA, most of SA, southern Queensland, NSW and northern Victoria (see map above), with chances falling below 30% over southeast SA, and southern NSW.  In other words, this means the chances of below average rainfall is greater than 60% in these areas.

For every ten winter outlooks with similar odds to these, about three or four of them would result in above-average rainfall over these areas, while about six or seven would be below average.

Conversely, the chance of exceeding the median rainfall is greater than 60% over eastern Tasmania.

Over the rest of the country, there is no significant shift in the odds towards either a wetter or drier than normal season.

Weekly rainfall map

(Courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology)

With the June USDA WASDE Report out last night – Wednesday 11^th June (US time), the grain markets continued the bearish sell down on the continued focus on abundant global supply with wheat production being raised by 4.6 Mt predominantly with increases out of Europe (up 1.4 Mt), Russia (up 1 Mt), India (up 1.85 Mt) & China (up 1 Mt). This now means the global wheat production – consumption is not so balanced with a supply surplus of about 2.9 Mt, which more than outweighs the reduction in the US winter wheat crop, and hence funds/managed money continue adding to their short wheat positions. This now puts the global ending stocks for wheat at 188.61 Mt with the stocks to use ratio sitting squarely on 27% compared to 26.5% last year.

Corn also didn’t fair too well with increases to global production out of Europe, Russia & Ukraine, due to favorable conditions for corn even in the US too at the moment. Global ending stocks for corn were raised to 182.65 Mt with the stocks to use ratio increasing slightly to 18.9% up from 17.8% last year.

Last but not least, soybeans finished down overnight on the back of slight increases to global ending stocks at 82.88 Mt (up 0.65 Mt) with stocks to use at 29.5% and expectations of a big production year out of the US this year to the tune of 98.93 Mt. US soybean ending stocks are therefore expected to increase from last year’s tight 3.4 Mt (3.7% stocks to use) to an expected 8.84 Mt or about 9.4% stocks to use.

Closer to home, ABARES yesterday released their update on the 14/15 Australian wheat crop with a reduction down to 24.59 Mt on the back of continued dryness and concerns about the developing El Nino situation over parts of the East Coast. Interestingly, ABARES lowered their Australian barley production estimates down by a massive 22% to 7.5 Mt due to expectations of a return to normal yields from last year.

ABARES estimate that total grain production for the 14/15 season for Australia will be about 38.8 Mt, down from 44.1mt last year.

Dry season patterns for Northern Australia

Northern Australia is now well into its dry season, which runs from May to September. A high pressure system over the Great Australian Bight over the last few days has pushed cool dry air as far as the north coast. Another high pressure system is likely later in the week and could produce another period of cool temperatures for the North. While the dry season usually experiences periods of warm and cool, seasonal climate models suggest the next three months are likely to be warmer-than-normal for northern Australia.

See the Bureau’s Seasonal Climate Outlooks for more information on the coming months.

El Niño remains likely in 2014

The equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to warm, suggesting a developing El Niño pattern. The Bureau of Meteorology has issued an El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Niño developing in 2014. See the Bureau’s new ENSO Tracker to find out more about an El Niño ALERT.

The latest sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly across the NINO3.4 region (located in the central Pacific) is +0.6 °C. The SSTs in this region have steadily warmed since February, a clear sign of a developing El Niño. The SSTs in the tropical South Pacific near Tahiti are still near the long-term average for this time of year. Over the last few weeks Tahiti has seen anomalous high pressure values, thus keeping the SOI positive. The latest 30-day SOI value to 8 June is +8.7. The SOI suggests that the atmosphere is yet to respond to the warming SSTs in the Pacific.

See the Bureau’s ENSO Wrap-Up including a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions for more information on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Pacific Ocean – even in neutral state the Western Pacific is warm.

Monsoon onset has been declared over southern India
Tropical activity has increased over the tropical Indian Ocean this week, with the Indian Meteorological Department declaring monsoon onset over southern India on 6 June (average date of monsoon onset over the Indian sub-continent is 1 June). Areas of especially active weather this week include a developing low in the Arabian Sea, strong south westerly winds across India, and a persistent monsoon trough over the Bay of Bengal. A weak Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event, currently detected near the equator in the east of the basin (weak signal), has possibly contributed to this recent increase in tropical activity across the Indian Ocean.

A survey of climate models indicates some uncertainty in the expected strength and movement of the MJO over the next two weeks with models indicating two main scenarios. The first is that the MJO, and associated active tropical weather, will maintain strength and continue east toward the Maritime Continent within the next two weeks. The second scenario is that the MJO, and associated weather, will progress east for a few days, then stall over the eastern Indian Ocean and southeast Asia.

For both scenarios, tropical cyclone development risk is expected to be higher than usual over the central and eastern tropical Indian Ocean in coming days with the risk increasing over South-East Asia during the next fortnight.

See the Bureau’s MJO Monitoring for more information on location and tracking of the MJO.

An exceptionally prolonged autumn warm spell 

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Special Climate Statement on the extended warm spell in May 2014, affecting most of the country.

Tropical activity has recently increased over the western Indian Ocean, near Africa, and is likely to be linked to a Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event which has recently developed in the region.  This past week has seen a steady continuation of the seasonal advance of the monsoon towards India, with the monsoon trough entering the southern Arabian Sea and moving further into the Bay of Bengal this week.

The arrival of the monsoon at Kerala indicates the official start of the monsoon over the Indian subcontinent. Based on the recent observations of monsoonal flow, the India Meteorological Department expects onset at Kerala in the next three to four days. The normal date of monsoon onset over Kerala is 1 June.

Climate models indicate the MJO event currently observed over the western Indian Ocean will move slowly eastwards across the tropical Indian Ocean this week and weaken. Some models indicate a weakened MJO will continue eastwards over southern Asia and Papua New Guinea next week, while others indicate the MJO will have weakened to the extent it becomes indiscernible by the time it reaches these longitudes.  As the MJO moves across the Indian Ocean it is likely to enhance tropical activity, including increasing the likelihood of monsoon onset over the Indian subcontinent. It will also increase the likelihood of tropical cyclone development in the northern Indian Ocean this week.

The tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track for El Niño in 2014, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Niño will become established by August.  An El Niño ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Niño developing in 2014.

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean have increased steadily since February, and are now greater than +0.5 °C in the key NINO regions. However, above-average SSTs also extend into the western tropical Pacific, meaning strong west to east gradients in tropical Pacific SSTs are yet to become established.  As a result, atmospheric indicators—such as the Southern Oscillation Index and trade winds—have only shown a weak response.

For Australia, El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas and above-normal daytime temperatures over southern parts of the continent. It is not uncommon to see some impacts prior to an event becoming fully established. May rainfall was below normal across parts of eastern Australia and maximum temperatures were above normal across much of the south and east.  The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter, with two of the five models surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop during spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.

ENSO Tracker
Our ENSO Tracker provides up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.

The status remains El Niño ALERT.

Next update expected on 17 June 2014 (Courtesy of Bureau of Metereology).

June to August 2014 outlooks issued on 27/05/14 –
The rainfall and temperature outlooks for June to August 2014 are now available on the Bureau’s website.
Key points –
• Drier than normal winter likely for southern mainland Australia
• Warmer winter likely for Australia
• Climate influences include a warming tropical Pacific Ocean and an easing of the warm eastern Indian Ocean

National rainfall outlook – Chance of exceeding median rainfall.

National temperature outlook – Chance of exceeding median maximum temperature.

Regional outlooks –
Northern Australia rainfall: No strong shift in the odds for most of northern Australia
Northern Australia temperature: Warmer season likely for northern Australia

Southeastern Australia rainfall: Drier winter more likely for the southeast Australian mainland
Southeastern Australia temperature: Warmer winter likely for southeast Australia

Western Australia rainfall: Drier winter likely for northwestern and southern Western Australia
Western Australia temperature: Warmer winter likely for Western Australia