Dec 09 2015

Weekly Report 27/11/15

Posted by GBA Administrator | Grain Brokers Australia News, Misc, Weekly Strategy Market Update | No Comments

WHEAT

CBOT Dec 15 futures finished the week at 479.2 USc/bu. Down 11.55 USc/bu week on week.

The overall message continues to remain that there is adequate wheat stock in the world today however production prospects in India and the Ukraine need ongoing monitoring.

Precipitation for a large portion of the US winter wheat area this week, allowing the USDA to increase the good to excellent to 53% up 1% for the week followed by cooler. US winter wheat is 96% planted and 90% has emerged.

Winter crops in Western Europe are generally in good condition heading into winter, but conditions remain poor into Ukraine and Russia, but with showers forecasted over the next ten days could ease concerns that were developing due to lack of rain. French winter wheat conditions are looking even better with 98% of winter soft wheat rated good to excellent compared to 93% last year. The latest EU Commission crop report also confirmed improvements for crops in Eastern Europe after mild weather earlier in November.

The Ukrainian supply situation continues to attract traders’ attention with nearly 36% of winter crops were rated ‘poor’ condition vs 18% last year. Indications their export potential in 2015/16 could be 8.5 million tonnes well below the volume achieved last year. The USDA estimate for Ukrainian production is 24.75 MMT for 2014/15, and some analysts are calling the 2015/16 crop could be as low as 20 million tonnes.

Traditionally Turkey has been a large buyer of Russian wheat, but Russia has stated it will stop supplying Turkey following recent military developments. This could present an opportunity for EU or Ukrainian exports to Turkey. Turkey is forecast to import 3.8Mt of wheat this season (USDA).

To read the full report click on the link below.

Weekly Report 15_11_27

Dec 02 2015

Weekly Report 20/11/15

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CORN/BARLEY

Dec 2015 CBOT corn futures gained 2.25 USc/Bu and settled at US$3.64 per bushel.

US corn is now 96% harvested without issue.

The UK is to supply 150k of high quality malt barley to china each year for the next 5 years, competition for Australia’s malt barley exports to China.
Japan’s use of corn in animal feed rose to 45.7% in September from 45.0% same time last year and corn most competitive alternative.
The IGC cut its forecasts for world maize production for 2015/16 by 3 million tonne to 967 million tonne in its latest Market Report.
The 5% decrease year on year was driven by downward output revisions for China and South Africa, which more than offset increases for the US.

Analysts estimate Brazil’s corn crop at 75% planted, below last year’s pace of 92%.

To read the complete report click the link below.

Weekly Report 15_11_23

Nov 25 2015

Weekly Report 14/11/15

Posted by GBA Administrator | Grain Brokers Australia News, Misc, Weekly Strategy Market Update | No Comments

CORN/BARLEY

Dec 2015 CBOT corn futures fell by 12.4USc/Bu and settled at US$3.745 per bushel.

Global corn demand was forecast to decrease by 9 MMT and the negative change to the China’s demand profile by 5 MMT was a big contributor to the change. Corn demand was reduced in part due to being substituted with sorghum. The end result was a significant increase in global forecast corn carryout of more than 20MMT.

Aussie barley remains competitive into Asian homes with Western Australian FOB pricing around the US$185 level, Our barley is currently $5 – $10 over working into Saudi at replacement and while some offshore barley interest is coming to the market, no firm numbers have been shown.

BEANS/CANOLA

Soybean November 15 CBOT futures were unchanged for the week at 878.60USc/bu.

ICE Canola remained unchanged for the week at CA$460.6t

USDA decreased world bean stocks by 2.2 million mt, but increased US production by 2.5 million mt!!

US beans now reported 95% harvested vs. 92% last week. Brazil’s Conab raised its forecast for a the 15/16 bean crop to between 101.2 million and 102.8 million mt – up from 100.1-101.9 million estimated last month.

To read the full report please click the below link.

Weekly Report 15_11_14

Nov 18 2015

Weekly Report 6/11/15

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WHEAT

CBOT Dec 15 futures finished the week at 526.3USc/bu. An 11.30 USc/bu rise week on week.

Chicago December wheat futures managed to close just above its’ 200day moving average, a bullish technical signal.

Once again dryness in Ukraine, Russia and the US combined with harmful harvest rain in Australia cited as reasons for futures pushing higher

The Ukraine government is suggesting up to 20% of their winter wheat crop will not survive the lack of rainfall and will need to be reseeded in the spring. According to UkrAgroConsult, a little more than 14 million acres of wheat will go into the ground in Ukraine, a similar acreage number to 2006, when just 16.5 million and 13.8 million tonnes of wheat was taken off, respectively. However, analysis think that the 2016/17

Ukrainian wheat crop could yield closer to 19 million tonnes. Only 55% of the seeded wheat crop (or about 8.7 million acres) has emerged, and only 69% of fields were in “good or satisfactory” condition.

In Russia, the Ag Ministry reported that at least 25% of their fall-seeded crops are in poor condition due to a lack of rain, and 92% of the planned acreage was in the ground at the end of October. A harsh winter would result in re-seeding in the spring with something other than wheat.

US winter wheat 88% planted, up 5% but Good to Excellent only rated 49% up 2% from last week. This time year at 59%

France’s winter wheat 78% planted.

India have planted winter crop on 8.40 million hectares so far this year- down 3.8% from a year ago due to dryness.

Local pricing has followed the offshore market with Kwinana and Geraldton at the $300 mark.

To read the full report click the link the link below.

Weekly Report 15_11_06

Nov 06 2015

Radiowest Interview 2/11/15

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Tom Wake on Rural Focus

Recently Tom Wake from the Geraldton GBA office was asked to do an interview with Vin Dawes on Rural Focus. The below interview details Tom’s history in the grain industry, the service GBA offers and contact details for the Geraldton GBA office.

If you missed the interview from Monday 2/11/15 feel free to have a listen as to what was discussed.

Grain Brokers Aust

Oct 21 2015

New Geraldton Office

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MEDIA RELEASE

19 October 2015

New GBA office and grain broker for Geraldton

Leading independent grain brokering business Grain Brokers Australia (GBA) has further expanded its presence in the WA grain belt with the opening of its second regional office in Geraldton.

The new office in Foreshore Drive opened this week, and follows the opening of GBA’s office in Albany in July.

The office will be operated by recently appointed GBA grain broker Tom Wake, who has significant grain broking and marketing experience in the Geraldton region.

GBA provides grain growers with a full brokering and advisory service, to assist them in maximising returns from their grain sales. This includes price discovery, grain brokering and sales, domestic grain marketing, contract execution and harvest administration.

The Geraldton office will provide grain growers in the region with greater access to international and domestic grain selling opportunities through the Geraldton and Kwinana port zones.

GBA General Manager, Jeff Winspear, said the new developments continued the steady growth for GBA’s team and its service offering.

“We are focussed on the WA grain industry, and we are very pleased to have Tom join the team and to be expanding our presence in the WA grain region. Tom is already well known to many farmers across the region, and brings considerable experience in the grain industry.”

“GBA has a number of clients across this area, and we are now receiving more interest in our broking and advisory services. With new offices in Albany and now Geraldton, we are able to provide more comprehensive and tailored service to our clients.”

According to Tom, growers were really looking to leverage the increasing number of marketing opportunities available, and ultimately, maximise the return from their grain harvest.

“I am looking forward to working with both existing and new clients to help them identify and capitalise on these opportunities.”

“If growers are in Geraldton, we encourage them to stop into the office and say g’day and discuss their grain marketing options.”

Tom Wake

Hailing from the land Tom has always had great empathy for the agricultural industry. Tom spent almost seven years with Emerald Grain in various roles. During this period he moved to South Australia to join a grower driven joint venture, most recently, was the Geraldton regional manager. Tom has also held a number of industry roles in WA and nationally, including being a representative on the GIWA wheat council, and recently becoming a director of the Agribusiness Association of Australia. Tom holds a commerce degree from the University of Western Australia and a Diploma of Financial Planning

Geraldton office details:

21b, 285 Foreshore Drive

Geraldton, WA 6530

M: 0428 658 273

tom@gba-wp.testing.cirrenalabs.com.au

For more information, please contact GBA General Manager, Jeffrey Winspear, on 0417 091 489.

Image supplied: GBA broker Tom Wake in front of the new Geraldton office in Foreshore Drive.

About GBA

GBA is an independent grain brokering and marketing service focussed on WA grain growers. Since its inception in 2007, GBA’s mission has been to provide farmers with a reliable service that ensures they have access to the tools, information and support necessary to make sound grain marketing decisions. GBA has built a proven service that has evolved alongside the markets and technology, culminating in a comprehensive brokerage offering that is now used by farmers Australia- wide. Is service offering includes price discovery, grain sales and broking, domestic market opportunities, contract execution and harvest administration. For more information, visit www.grainbrokers.com.au

Oct 15 2015

October Temperatures

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Oct 13 2015

2nd October Weekly Report

Posted by GBA Administrator | Grain Brokers Australia News, Misc, Weekly Strategy Market Update | No Comments

WHEAT

CBOT Dec 15 futures finished the week at 518.25 USc/bu. A 21.05 USc/bu rise week on week.

This week we got the USDA 1^st September grain stocks report, which was viewed as slightly bullish for grain prices, with the numbers coming in below expectations. US wheat production was lowered by 2.31Mt to 55.8Mt. The trade had been expecting a figure closer to 57.9Mt.

Offshore wheat futures pushed higher this week as dry weather through the Black Sea region continues to make headlines. With more dry weather forecasted, already we are seeing disruption to winter wheat sowings. Rains is needed to help winter-sown wheat germinate before going dormant over the winter months. Ukraine and Russia, have seen less than half the normal amount of rain since early August.

The dry conditions in Australia is also making headlines globally at the moment with a lack of spring rain raising concerns over yield and quality prospects in the final stage of production. Thus analysts are calling for a downgrade on the AU wheat crop, with as much as 3Mt being lost to dry conditions. NAB is suggesting 2.4Mt could come off, the 25.3Mt ABARES forecast.

The Russian government has proposed to cut its wheat export tax from 1^st October 2015 and exempt durum wheat from the tax. The proposals include increasing the deduction from 5,500 to 6,500 rubles. With total grain exports from 1 July – 18 Sept down 23% yearon-year, the reduction on taxation is expected to encourage wheat exports, which are behind last year’s pace.

To read the complete report please click below.

Weekly Report 15_10_02